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The Tally Ho

Friday, February 25, 2005

Time For Some Small Discussion

Warning: Read the Previous 5 Posts Before Starting the Witch Hunt!

(For those of you searching for witches, I have the timber and matches and will give you my address upon request)


What do I think about all of this garbage I just wrote? Well, essentially, I'm short on the American economy. I'm not a proponent of consumer spending as a means of sustainable development. I think the economy of the last two years doesn't hold much water. I think we are approaching capacity and will see continually slowing economic growth over the next 1-5 years--barring a drastic event or technological breakthrough. I think the shift in government spending is hurting the economy in the long run. I think international pressure on the US will offset any impact the lower dollar is having on exports and will hurt the US economy far more than it helps. I think only large, consolidated sectors will continue to do well, but that is oligopoly theory and international competition in the works...I have a whole thesis in the making about that.

Where do my classmates stand? Well, this is the hard part for me. I consider my forecast to be relatively optimistic for the economy as I see it...moderate at worst. Of my class of 20, I have the lowest GDP prediction by 5 points! What does this tell me? This tells me that a large portion of senior finance students in a "liberal arts-based" university are the CEOs of fantasyland! To hear them argue their points is a complete buy-in to the doctrines some officials/networks broadcast. Here are students who, in theory, understand analysis, but are predicting GDP growth in the US near that of Eastern Europe for 2005! Well, i'm out of time for the moment, so sound off, tell me what you think, like, hate, disagree, i'm stupid, whatever comes to mind.

--Nico

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