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The Tally Ho

Friday, November 05, 2004

Pollsters on CSPAN

I was listening to panel of pollsters at George Washington University, covered by CSPAN. They discussed the Religion vote and other things. Look at these numbers:

Catholic: 26% of voting population, 50%-50%, tied.

Protestant: 53% of voting population, 53%-46% for Bush.

Jewish: 3% of voting population, 78%-22% for Kerry.

One of the Democratic pollsters joked that John and Jack Kennedy are rolling in their graves. But what I would like to know is how many of the Protestant voters consider themselves evangelical - and their break down.

The same Democratic pollster that joked about President Kennedy is of the opinion that the GOP put together an outstanding coalition. However, it is not a permanent (just like 1964 despair of the GOP and 1980 despair of the DNC) coalition. It is her opinion that it is an inherently unstable and was benefited by the war. Also, the President's close out strategy to pick up undecided women voters late, worked. Much of which was based on the war. As for the South, it was the opinion that it will hold - but its a different South than many think. North Carolina for example, reelected a Governor that looked vulnerable not long ago. In the state races Democrats did well. So Southern (way too broad!) voters are willing to split their tickets. Lastly, one of the pollsters had the feeling that in 2006, and what should have been better this cycle, was a stronger critique of President Bush's homeland security. That over all it is not about liberal or center-left, it is articulation, not soundbite based.

Just thought I would share this.


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