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The Tally Ho

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

The Morning After

First, I will not comment who will win Ohio. While it does not look great for Mr. Kerry, there are a lot of provisional and absentee ballots out there - the numbers are there. A few comments after sleep and caffeine.

The House: Texas redistricting did what it was designed to do. There is a lack of real house races because of gerrymandering.

The Senate: This was also not too surprising. While many of us were optimistic, lets look at reality and where the open seats were: South Carolina, Oklahoma, North Carolina, Alaska, Florida, Colorado, and Illinois. The Democrats won big in Illinois, but the rest of the Senate seats broke like the top of the ticket did except for Colorado. I thought every Democratic candidate, perhaps except Bowles in NC, was good! Sure, liberals whined and complained that Carson was too moderate - but its Oklahoma for crying out loud. That is the attitude that makes you a permanent minority. Those were the candidates that could win, and you will not see every American with health coverage without winning Senate and House seats in states that will not vote for a liberal for president. Bottom line, we were going to lose Senate seats even if Mr. Kerry won Ohio and Florida. What is left? The Senate Democrats are now probably a more liberal bunch. See how we aren't in control of it? Who will the new leader be? My top five: Sen. Corzine (NJ), Sen. Reid (NV), Sen. Durban (IL), Sen. Lincoln (AR), and maybe Sen. Reed (RI). I think it has to be someone new. Someone that does not win on razor thin margins and/or is not up for reelection in the next four years. Senators Santorum (PA) and Talent (MO) are probably the most vulnerable in 2006 for the GOP.

The Media & The Pulse of a Nation: The issue with me is not if the media is liberal or conservative, but that they aren't any good. They missed the boat. They were talking about how much unemployment and Iraq were going to be huge issues. They talked about the SBVT damaging Mr. Kerry, which was nonsense. Lets be honest - Ohio did not vote on Iraq or unemployment. Bush did not win the popular vote by being a great steward of the economy, his choice to invade Iraq, his energy policy, or his stance on affordable health care. He won on the cultural war. This has been a long piece of frustration for me: how they are convincing people to vote against their economic best interest and using the cultural war as the primary tool. As someone thirty or under, it is hard to imagine. It is our age group that is being killed and injured in Iraq. It is our age group that is going to be left with a massive national debt. It is our age group will see the long term effects of not having affordable housing, education, and health care. As one of my very good friends, way North of 30, emailed me this morning

Well I've begun packing for my move to Iceland. Hopefully I'll have things wrapped up here in two weeks so I can get the fuck out of this god forsaken den of stupid people who can't see the fucking forest through the god damn trees.

Who knows, though, maybe, someday I'll embrace the newly adopted version of democracy that gives you exactly 3 choices: guns, Jesus, and straight, rich, white people.

Obviously my buddy is frustrated, but that shows the deep cultural divide in our country.

The Choice of Kerry/The Culture War/Future of the DNC Electorate: Before we start the nonsense of how bad the campaign was, etc., etc. Mr. Kerry, a Northeast Liberal, did way better than Gov. Dukakis in 1988. Mr. Kerry won MI, CA, IL, PA, ME, VT, NH, CT, DE, MD, and NJ. What is shows me is how the regional the US seems to be - and this is the future question. The US population is shifting South and West, and will be awarded more electoral votes as a result. This is move away from the stomping grounds of big labor and cultural liberals. The Democratic Party has to figure out a better way to present issues, especially their moral importance like health care, head start, etc. and overcome the electoral maps of the future. By 2012, NY, PA, OH, MI, MN, and maybe IL and MD will lose an electoral vote or two. Where will this be made up other than the Pacific West Coast absorbing some of them? Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, and Texas.

Old School Conservatives: Do any turn independent as we seemingly go regional? I can't imagine that Lincoln Chafee, Susan Collins, or Olympia Snowe are represented by the current Republican Party. It seems like a lot of Northeast conservatives, in todays context, seem to be economic moderates with a civil libertarian streak.

Just a few early afternoon thoughts...


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