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The Tally Ho

Wednesday, November 03, 2004

I Need Sleep

Well, as many of us have thought - the election comes down to Ohio, literally. We won't know what will happen in Iowa until Wednesday due to voting machine errors, absentee ballots, and fatigue - stay tuned. Much of the night I was bothered by the exit polls in Ohio, because they indicated a clear winner for the Senator, but they seem to make sense now. I expect to wake up tomorrow and see a 257-254 Kerry Electoral lead. Maybe Wisconsin will not be done tonight. Ohio? I am sure there will be a recount, and we have yet to see how many provisional and absentee ballots have yet to be counted. Remember, in 2000, Iowa was won by Gore only after the absentee ballots were counted. I would be lying if I said that looked great.

Some observations:

1) Exit polls even from 4pm were totally off for Florida and Ohio. Early the story looked to be the Democratic ground game. Where did that go? I think it was strong, but it certainly won't be the story of the night. Once again this was not the election in which they came out.

2) Right now, Mr. Bush took one Democratic state and Mr. Kerry took one Republican state from the last election. So state wise, how much has changed except for electoral vote shift to the conservative part of the country? This is why the Dems lost several Senate seats. We were asking for too many Bush supporters to split their ballots.

3) Was it the cultural wars and terror fear that let Bush win the popular vote?

4) Even if Mr. Kerry wins Ohio, how can the country be more united?


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