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The Tally Ho

Saturday, October 30, 2004

All The Presidents Sons

Have you noticed that who all of the current sons of elected presidents seem to be endorsing Sen. Kerry? Well, okay, John Eisenhower and Ron Reagan have. But yesterday I read that Franklin Roosevelt’s grandson is for Mr. Kerry, and would like Mr. Bush to stop using his father on the campaign trail. Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg has said the same thing. Ex- Governor Millken of Michigan is for Mr. Kerry... anyway, back to James Roosevelt, Jr. He writes for Newsweek

Last May, I walked through the magnificent new World War II Memorial that was soon to be dedicated on the National Mall in Washington. The architecture, sculpture and carved quotations were impressive. But it was the faces of the retired veterans and the depth of feeling in the eyes of their wives and widows that was most moving. As I watched them read the words of inspiration from the war's leaders etched into the stone walls, I thought of my father, who served during the war as a Marine in Carlson's Raiders. His father, my grandfather, was making his own contribution: as president of the United States.

Today, I remember the words etched into that memorial while I read the news from Iraq. The contrast is stark. This summer, Franklin Delano Roosevelt's name and legacy were invoked by almost a dozen speakers at the Republican National Convention. But George W. Bush is not, and never will be, a president like FDR...

...Most importantly, Dr. Win the War (as FDR was called) met with the leaders of the Allied nations throughout the war to plan the peace. Roosevelt and Winston Churchill, together with Joseph Stalin and sometimes even Charles DeGaulle, knew that military victory leading to an unplanned peace was hollow and potentially disastrous. Iraq today proves that their fears were well founded...

...For Bush to grant himself this title is an insult to my grandfather and the inspired leaders who led this country in wars that were just. To put it simply, George W. Bush has not earned the right to be called a War President.

Back to the election, Jerome Armstrong of MyDD (who I haven't read on a regular basis since he returned - my bad) writes that the Kerry Strategy is to win the big three (PA, OH, FL) and that in theory it would be enough to win. There is some argument about how close Michigan really is, and if Bush's Michigan push is really the need to counter the very good chance that Kerry/Edwards does sweep the big three. Also, it sounds as if Dems are not finishing strong in New Mexico and New Hampshire is KE'04. The good news is that sweeping New England, the big three, New York, New Jersey, Maryland, DC, Delaware, Illinois, the entire Pacific West Coast including Hawaii equals 262 electoral votes. Notice this is without Minnesota, Wisconsin, Iowa, Michigan, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Arkansas, or West Virginia. Chances of Mr. Kerry getting the neccessary 8 evs out of that lot is pretty damn high. Not to mention that MI, WI, and IA all have Democratic Governors and were states that went for Mr. Gore. Even if you remove Florida, and to think that FL won't have more problems this year than in 2000 is a rosy picture - don't rest your hopes on Florida, it leaves Mr. Kerry with 235 EVs, 35 to the Presidency. Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota is 37 EVs. So in other words, things look good by their model. If you want to play with an electoral calculator, click here. I usually don't like to do the above out of fear of a jinx, however I find it interesting. In the end this year is going to be about who registered more new voters and who gets more new voters to the polls, and how high or low the incumbents job performance is. I know one woman who traveled to Ohio. Elwood is going to Wisconsin. Jen from Good Intentions posted that she is off to Florida. I'll be phone banking all weekend (and wish I was in OH or FL). Mattb25, a dKos poster, lists his predictions.

I leave you this image from MyDD


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